Will Maharashtra Be Stable Under Fadnavis?

Maharashtra is also at the juncture of a structural disruption. The Congress, the most powerful of political formations in the State, has been decimated in the recent assembly elections. The BJP and the RSS will certainly cash in on this debacle and might try to give a final blow. This would be the bloodiest political battle the State has ever seen

Finally, the BJP has taken complete control over Maharashtra. On 5 November, the cabinet of Devendra Fadnavis took an oath in a big public ceremony. Newspapers were overflowing with the praise of the new chief minister, and his loud-worded assertion made headlines after he had failed to form a ministry in 2019 following a walkout by Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena from the National Democratic Alliance. “I would be back like the sea. Do not try to settle at my coast!” he would assert. He has made a comeback and has every reason to celebrate. But there is no reason for those committed to democracy and the constitution to applaud. The assembly elections in Maharashtra have been among the most controversial elections we have seen during the past decade under Prime Minister Modi.

The opposition parties, including the Congress, Shiv Sena, and NCP (Sharad Pawar), alleged several malpractices, including abnormally high additions of voters and doubtful deletions, in the 4 months between Lok Sabha and assembly polls. The Congress has alleged that more than 47 lakh voters have been in just 5 months between Lok Sabha and assembly polls. The party has alleged that 102 of 118 constituencies where the post-poll surge has been seen between 5 PM and 11:30 PM have seen victory for the BJP-led alliance. However, the ECI has rejected all the allegations in consonance with its earlier stand that Congress raises false alarms. The Commission has yet to come clean on the allegations about the surge in the voter turnout between the closing time of voting and 11:30 PM, at which the final voter turnout figure is announced.

The source-based news appeared in the media only to indicate that the Commission is not going to investigate individual allegations. It seems to have taken the same position it had taken on complaints after the Haryana poll results. The ECI’s position is that all these allegations are baseless and the Commission is bound to protect the electoral process, including the machinery comprising the Returning Officers (ROs) and others. During Modi's rule, the Commission has been refusing to listen to the opposition and coming out with standard replies. It has hardly entertained any complaint against the ruling party. Its style of functioning could be seen in how it refuses to act against hate-mongering by the BJP during campaigns. The outcome of Congress’ complaint to the ECI needs no speculation.

However, the spontaneity with which voters in Maharashtra have started to question the electoral process should worry the Commission. The people of Makadwadi in the Malshiras constituency of the Solapur district had arranged a mock re-poll on ballot papers to verify the EVM poll results. Though villagers had to postpone, they received adequate attention. Villagers planned a re-poll on the ballot paper after the stunning poll results where their popular leader, NCP MLA Uttam Jankar, had polled much less than what villagers claim to have polled. The administration had to impose prohibitory orders. Villagers allege police pressure.

Protests against EVM results are gaining momentum. Similar mock repolls on ballot papers have been planned at other places in Maharashtra. Noted Marathi author Bhalchandra Nemade has even invoked the legacy of Bapu Lad, who had rebelled against the British rulers during the Quit India movement of 1942 and was instrumental in establishing a parallel government in Satara. He appealed to people to form such parallel governments. He essentially means restoration of democracy.

Has the BJP been able to restore political stability in Maharashtra? The answer is no. The BJP has brought a great disruption to the politics in Maharashtra. The mandate it has received is most likely to become injurious to the political balance in the state. There has been a distinct ideological divide in the state in which the right wing has been a less dominant force. This is the only state where people too often invoke the legacies of Mahatma Phule, Baba Saheb Ambedkar, and Shahu Chhatrapati Maharaj. Unlike North India, Marathi people take pride in their progressive traditions, and even the BJP and other right-wing organizations including Shiv Sena, have to take recourse of eulogizing progressive traditions. After finding themselves in such a commanding position, the BJP and the RSS might try to replace the progressive narrative woven around the progressive legacy. They might try to bring back the legacy of Savarkar and such other figures. They might recast some popular figures as well into their frame. The ideological shock to those who have been tuned to progressive discourse will be huge.

Maharashtra is also at the juncture of a structural disruption. The Congress, the most powerful of political formations in the State, has been decimated in the recent assembly elections. The BJP and the RSS will certainly cash in on this debacle and might try to give a final blow. This would be the bloodiest political battle the State has ever seen. The Congress controls many institutions in the state, including cooperatives and educational institutions. The BJP and the RSS will try to dislodge them. People are aware that they never feel shy of adopting any unscrupulous means. We have seen how they engineered splits in two strong political parties and used every means, including the ED, CBI, and IT, to break them. Media might have forgotten them, but history will remember how Shiv Sena MLAs were traveling to Guwahati and Goa via Surat while Eknath Shinde was a cabinet minister. The same tactics were adopted against the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. Could there be no retaliation from the party workers who were subjected to humiliations they had never imagined? The elections would have provided them an opportunity for revival. That too has been snatched.

Will the people allow the State to be run by Delhi leaders who have led these disruptions?

The ECI cannot escape the resentment of the people against the poll process it wants to continue with.

(The author is a senior journalist. He has experience of working with leading newspapers and electronic media including Deccan Herald, Sunday Guardian, Navbharat Times and Dainik Bhaskar. He writes on politics, society, environment and economy)